Discounted Cash Flow

Exponent Inc.

EXPO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $315.1m $47.5m $46.1m 15.1% $1.79
2017 $347.8m (10.4%) $41.3m (-13.0%) $63.1m (36.9%) 11.9% (-21.2%) $1.57 (-12.3%)
2018 $379.5m (9.1%) $72.3m (74.9%) $74.9m (18.7%) 19.0% (60.3%) $1.37 (-12.7%)
2019 $417.2m (9.9%) $82.5m (14.1%) $85.0m (13.5%) 19.8% (3.8%) $1.56 (13.9%)
2020 $417.2m (0.0%) $82.5m (0.0%) $85.0m (0.0%) 19.8% (0.0%) $0.64 (-59.0%)
2021 $466.3m (11.8%) $101.2m (22.7%) $117.7m (38.5%) 21.7% (9.8%) $1.92 (200.0%)
2022 $513.3m (10.1%) $102.3m (1.1%) $81.8m (-30.6%) 19.9% (-8.1%) $1.98 (3.1%)
2023 $536.8m (4.6%) $100.3m (-1.9%) $111.0m (35.8%) 18.7% (-6.2%) $1.96 (-1.0%)
2024 $558.5m (4.1%) $109.0m (8.6%) $137.6m (24.0%) 19.5% (4.4%) $2.13 (8.7%)
2025 $582.0m (4.2%) $106.0m (-2.7%) $122.3m (-11.1%) 18.2% (-6.7%) $2.08 (-2.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model