Discounted Cash Flow
Fastenal Co.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $4.0b | $499.5m | $324.5m | 12.6% | $1.73 |
| 2017 | $4.4b (10.8%) | $578.6m (15.8%) | $465.3m (43.4%) | 13.2% (4.5%) | $2.01 (16.2%) |
| 2018 | $5.0b (13.1%) | $751.9m (30.0%) | $497.9m (7.0%) | 15.1% (14.9%) | $2.62 (30.3%) |
| 2019 | $5.3b (7.4%) | $790.9m (5.2%) | $596.3m (19.8%) | 14.8% (-2.1%) | $1.38 (-47.3%) |
| 2020 | $5.6b (5.9%) | $859.1m (8.6%) | $933.7m (56.6%) | 15.2% (2.6%) | $1.50 (8.7%) |
| 2021 | $6.0b (6.4%) | $925.0m (7.7%) | $613.5m (-34.3%) | 15.4% (1.2%) | $1.61 (7.3%) |
| 2022 | $7.0b (16.1%) | $1.1b (17.5%) | $767.2m (25.1%) | 15.6% (1.2%) | $1.89 (17.4%) |
| 2023 | $7.3b (5.2%) | $1.2b (6.3%) | $1.3b (64.2%) | 15.7% (1.0%) | $2.02 (6.9%) |
| 2024 | $7.5b (2.7%) | $1.2b (-0.4%) | $946.8m (-24.9%) | 15.2% (-3.0%) | $2.01 (-0.5%) |
| 2025 | $8.2b (8.7%) | $1.3b (9.4%) | $1.1b (11.0%) | 15.3% (0.6%) | $1.10 (-45.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.