Discounted Cash Flow

Five Below, Inc.

FIVE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $1.0b $71.8m $61.8m 7.2% $1.31
2018 $1.3b (27.8%) $102.5m (42.6%) $99.6m (61.1%) 8.0% (11.6%) $1.86 (42.0%)
2019 $1.6b (22.0%) $149.6m (46.1%) $70.4m (-29.3%) 9.6% (19.7%) $2.68 (44.1%)
2020 $1.8b (18.4%) $175.1m (17.0%) $-25.3m (-135.9%) 9.5% (-1.2%) $3.14 (17.2%)
2021 $2.0b (6.2%) $123.4m (-29.5%) $165.8m (756.1%) 6.3% (-33.7%) $2.21 (-29.6%)
2022 $2.8b (45.2%) $278.8m (126.0%) $39.7m (-76.0%) 9.8% (55.7%) $4.98 (125.3%)
2023 $3.1b (8.0%) $261.5m (-6.2%) $63.0m (58.4%) 8.5% (-13.1%) $4.71 (-5.4%)
2024 $3.6b (15.7%) $301.1m (15.1%) $164.6m (161.3%) 8.5% (-0.5%) $5.43 (15.3%)
2025 $3.9b (8.9%) $253.6m (-15.8%) $106.7m (-35.2%) 6.5% (-22.7%) $4.61 (-15.1%)
2026 $4.8b (22.9%) $358.6m (41.4%) $411.7m (286.0%) 7.5% (15.1%) $6.51 (41.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model