Discounted Cash Flow

Friedman Industries Inc.

FRD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $77.8m $-2.7m $-1.0m -3.4% $-0.39
2018 $121.2m (55.8%) $2.8m (203.0%) $2.9m (389.0%) 2.3% (166.1%) $0.39 (200.0%)
2019 $187.2m (54.5%) $5.1m (84.8%) $8.8m (204.7%) 2.7% (19.6%) $0.73 (87.2%)
2020 $142.1m (-24.1%) $-5.2m (-202.9%) $6.3m (-28.6%) -3.7% (-235.6%) $-0.75 (-202.7%)
2021 $126.1m (-11.3%) $11.4m (317.6%) $3.8m (-39.4%) 9.1% (345.3%) $1.63 (317.3%)
2022 $285.2m (126.2%) $14.1m (23.1%) $-21.5m (-662.2%) 4.9% (-45.6%) $2.04 (25.2%)
2023 $547.5m (92.0%) $21.3m (51.7%) $47.4m (321.0%) 3.9% (-21.0%) $2.91 (42.6%)
2024 $516.3m (-5.7%) $17.3m (-18.7%) $-813.0k (-101.7%) 3.4% (-13.8%) $2.39 (-17.9%)
2025 $444.6m (-13.9%) $6.1m (-64.9%) $-8.4m (-934.7%) 1.4% (-59.3%) $0.87 (-63.6%)
2026 $646.9m (45.5%) $19.5m (221.0%) $1.4m (116.4%) 3.0% (120.6%) $2.76 (217.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model