Discounted Cash Flow

FS Bancorp, Inc.

FSBW · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $57.4m $10.5m $-7.0k 18.3% $3.63
2017 $65.3m (13.7%) $14.1m (34.2%) $14.1m (201071.4%) 21.6% (17.9%) $4.55 (25.3%)
2018 $78.9m (20.9%) $24.3m (72.9%) $17.6m (25.4%) 30.8% (43.0%) $6.58 (44.6%)
2019 $93.3m (18.2%) $22.7m (-6.7%) $6.7m (-61.9%) 24.3% (-21.1%) $5.13 (-22.0%)
2020 $129.5m (38.7%) $39.3m (72.8%) $-33.7m (-601.9%) 30.3% (24.6%) $9.14 (78.2%)
2021 $124.2m (-4.1%) $37.4m (-4.7%) $107.0m (417.6%) 30.1% (-0.6%) $4.42 (-51.6%)
2022 $122.4m (-1.4%) $29.6m (-20.8%) $183.3m (71.3%) 24.2% (-19.6%) $3.75 (-15.2%)
2023 $143.8m (17.5%) $36.1m (21.6%) $76.0m (-58.5%) 25.1% (3.5%) $4.63 (23.5%)
2024 $144.7m (0.6%) $35.0m (-2.9%) $49.2m (-35.3%) 24.2% (-3.4%) $4.48 (-3.2%)
2025 $152.7m (5.5%) $33.3m (-4.8%) $51.9m (5.6%) 21.8% (-9.8%) $4.35 (-2.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model