Discounted Cash Flow

First Solar, Inc.

FSLR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.0b $-358.0m $-22.7m -12.1% $-3.48
2017 $2.9b (-0.3%) $-165.6m (53.7%) $826.3m (3740.3%) -5.6% (53.6%) $-1.59 (54.3%)
2018 $2.2b (-23.7%) $144.3m (187.1%) $-1.1b (-229.1%) 6.4% (214.2%) $1.38 (186.8%)
2019 $3.1b (36.5%) $-114.9m (-179.6%) $-494.5m (53.6%) -3.8% (-158.3%) $-1.09 (-179.0%)
2020 $2.7b (-11.5%) $398.4m (446.6%) $-379.5m (23.3%) 14.7% (491.6%) $3.76 (445.0%)
2021 $2.9b (7.8%) $468.7m (17.7%) $-302.7m (20.2%) 16.0% (9.1%) $4.41 (17.3%)
2022 $2.6b (-10.4%) $-44.2m (-109.4%) $-30.2m (90.0%) -1.7% (-110.5%) $-0.41 (-109.3%)
2023 $3.3b (26.7%) $830.8m (1981.0%) $-784.5m (-2494.6%) 25.0% (1584.7%) $7.78 (1997.6%)
2024 $4.2b (26.7%) $1.3b (55.5%) $-308.1m (60.7%) 30.7% (22.7%) $12.07 (55.1%)
2025 $5.2b (24.1%) $1.5b (18.3%) $1.2b (485.4%) 29.3% (-4.7%) $14.25 (18.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model