Discounted Cash Flow

GEO Group Inc.

GEO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.2b $148.7m $-109.6m 6.8% $2.01
2017 $2.3b (3.9%) $146.2m (-1.7%) $232.6m (312.3%) 6.5% (-5.3%) $1.22 (-39.3%)
2018 $2.3b (3.0%) $145.1m (-0.8%) $78.8m (-66.1%) 6.2% (-3.7%) $1.21 (-0.8%)
2019 $2.5b (6.3%) $166.6m (14.8%) $220.9m (180.3%) 6.7% (8.0%) $1.40 (15.7%)
2020 $2.4b (-5.2%) $113.0m (-32.2%) $332.9m (50.7%) 4.8% (-28.5%) $0.94 (-32.9%)
2021 $2.3b (-4.0%) $77.4m (-31.5%) $213.2m (-36.0%) 3.4% (-28.7%) $0.59 (-37.2%)
2022 $2.4b (5.3%) $171.8m (121.9%) $206.4m (-3.2%) 7.2% (110.7%) $1.18 (100.0%)
2023 $2.4b (1.5%) $107.3m (-37.5%) $211.9m (2.7%) 4.4% (-38.5%) $0.73 (-38.1%)
2024 $2.4b (0.4%) $32.0m (-70.2%) $163.5m (-22.8%) 1.3% (-70.3%) $0.23 (-68.5%)
2025 $2.6b (8.6%) $254.4m (695.8%) $-124.9m (-176.4%) 9.7% (632.9%) $1.85 (704.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model