Discounted Cash Flow

Graco Inc.

GGG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.3b $40.7m $227.0m 3.1% $0.73
2017 $1.5b (10.9%) $252.4m (520.6%) $297.7m (31.1%) 17.1% (459.4%) $1.50 (105.5%)
2018 $1.7b (12.1%) $341.1m (35.1%) $314.1m (5.5%) 20.6% (20.5%) $2.04 (36.0%)
2019 $1.6b (-0.4%) $343.9m (0.8%) $290.8m (-7.4%) 20.9% (1.3%) $2.06 (1.0%)
2020 $1.7b (0.2%) $330.5m (-3.9%) $322.7m (11.0%) 20.0% (-4.1%) $1.97 (-4.4%)
2021 $2.0b (20.5%) $439.9m (33.1%) $323.3m (0.2%) 22.1% (10.5%) $2.59 (31.5%)
2022 $2.1b (7.8%) $460.6m (4.7%) $176.2m (-45.5%) 21.5% (-2.9%) $2.73 (5.4%)
2023 $2.2b (2.4%) $506.5m (10.0%) $466.2m (164.6%) 23.1% (7.3%) $3.01 (10.3%)
2024 $2.1b (-3.7%) $486.1m (-4.0%) $515.0m (10.4%) 23.0% (-0.3%) $2.88 (-4.3%)
2025 $2.2b (5.8%) $521.8m (7.4%) $637.9m (23.9%) 23.3% (1.4%) $3.14 (9.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model