Discounted Cash Flow

Graham Holdings Co.

GHC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.5b $168.6m $194.6m 6.8% $29.95
2017 $2.6b (4.4%) $302.0m (79.2%) $207.7m (6.7%) 11.7% (71.6%) $54.24 (81.1%)
2018 $2.7b (4.0%) $271.2m (-10.2%) $188.8m (-9.1%) 10.1% (-13.7%) $50.55 (-6.8%)
2019 $2.9b (8.8%) $327.9m (20.9%) $71.7m (-62.0%) 11.2% (11.2%) $61.70 (22.1%)
2020 $2.9b (-1.5%) $300.4m (-8.4%) $141.1m (96.9%) 10.4% (-7.0%) $58.30 (-5.5%)
2021 $3.2b (10.3%) $352.1m (17.2%) $39.9m (-71.7%) 11.1% (6.3%) $70.65 (21.2%)
2022 $3.9b (23.2%) $67.1m (-80.9%) $152.9m (283.4%) 1.7% (-84.5%) $13.83 (-80.4%)
2023 $4.4b (12.5%) $205.3m (206.0%) $166.4m (8.8%) 4.6% (172.0%) $43.96 (217.9%)
2024 $4.8b (8.5%) $724.6m (253.0%) $324.1m (94.7%) 15.1% (225.3%) $164.62 (274.5%)
2025 $4.9b (2.5%) $292.3m (-59.7%) $275.3m (-15.0%) 6.0% (-60.7%) $67.11 (-59.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model