Discounted Cash Flow

Gilead Sciences, Inc.

GILD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $30.4b $13.5b $15.9b 44.4% $10.08
2017 $26.1b (-14.1%) $4.6b (-65.7%) $11.3b (-29.0%) 17.7% (-60.1%) $3.54 (-64.9%)
2018 $22.1b (-15.2%) $5.5b (17.9%) $7.5b (-33.9%) 24.7% (39.1%) $4.20 (18.6%)
2019 $22.4b (1.5%) $5.4b (-1.3%) $8.3b (11.3%) 24.0% (-2.7%) $4.24 (1.0%)
2020 $24.7b (10.0%) $123.0m (-97.7%) $7.5b (-9.6%) 0.5% (-97.9%) $0.10 (-97.6%)
2021 $27.3b (10.6%) $6.2b (4961.0%) $10.8b (43.7%) 22.8% (4476.1%) $4.96 (4860.0%)
2022 $27.3b (-0.1%) $4.6b (-26.2%) $8.3b (-22.8%) 16.8% (-26.2%) $3.66 (-26.2%)
2023 $27.1b (-0.6%) $5.7b (23.4%) $7.4b (-11.1%) 20.9% (24.1%) $4.54 (24.0%)
2024 $28.8b (6.0%) $480.0m (-91.5%) $480.0m (-93.5%) 1.7% (-92.0%) $0.38 (-91.6%)
2025 $29.4b (2.4%) $8.5b (1672.9%) $9.5b (1870.0%) 28.9% (1631.4%) $6.84 (1700.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model