Discounted Cash Flow
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.1b | $20.6m | $13.6m | 1.0% | $0.30 |
| 2018 | $2.3b (10.2%) | $15.9m (-23.0%) | $41.0m (201.0%) | 0.7% (-30.1%) | $0.24 (-20.0%) |
| 2019 | $2.6b (11.9%) | $15.4m (-2.8%) | $35.6m (-13.2%) | 0.6% (-13.2%) | $0.20 (-16.7%) |
| 2020 | $3.1b (22.5%) | $106.7m (592.1%) | $56.3m (58.0%) | 3.4% (465.1%) | $1.16 (480.0%) |
| 2021 | $3.1b (0.0%) | $106.7m (0.0%) | $56.3m (0.0%) | 3.4% (0.0%) | $1.16 (0.0%) |
| 2022 | $3.6b (14.1%) | $65.1m (-39.0%) | $35.1m (-37.7%) | 1.8% (-46.6%) | $0.67 (-42.2%) |
| 2023 | $4.0b (10.9%) | $79.4m (22.1%) | $134.5m (283.0%) | 2.0% (10.1%) | $0.80 (19.4%) |
| 2024 | $4.4b (10.1%) | $39.5m (-50.3%) | $-74.6m (-155.5%) | 0.9% (-54.9%) | $0.40 (-50.0%) |
| 2025 | $4.7b (7.3%) | $-224.9m (-669.9%) | $1.8m (102.4%) | -4.8% (-631.3%) | $-2.30 (-675.0%) |
| 2026 | $4.7b (0.0%) | $-224.9m (0.0%) | $23.8m (1214.2%) | -4.8% (0.0%) | $-2.30 (0.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.