Discounted Cash Flow

Alphabet Inc.

GOOG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $90.3b $19.5b $25.8b 21.6% $113.28
2017 $110.9b (22.8%) $12.7b (-35.0%) $23.9b (-7.4%) 11.4% (-47.1%) $73.08 (-35.5%)
2018 $136.8b (23.4%) $30.7b (142.7%) $22.8b (-4.5%) 22.5% (96.7%) $44.22 (-39.5%)
2019 $161.9b (18.3%) $34.3b (11.7%) $31.0b (35.7%) 21.2% (-5.5%) $49.59 (12.1%)
2020 $182.5b (12.8%) $40.3b (17.3%) $42.8b (38.3%) 22.1% (4.0%) $59.15 (19.3%)
2021 $257.6b (41.2%) $76.0b (88.8%) $67.0b (56.4%) 29.5% (33.8%) $113.88 (92.5%)
2022 $282.8b (9.8%) $60.0b (-21.1%) $60.0b (-10.4%) 21.2% (-28.2%) $4.59 (-96.0%)
2023 $307.6b (8.8%) $73.8b (23.0%) $69.5b (15.8%) 24.0% (13.1%) $5.84 (27.2%)
2024 $350.2b (13.8%) $100.1b (35.7%) $72.8b (4.7%) 28.6% (19.2%) $8.13 (39.2%)
2025 $402.8b (15.0%) $132.2b (32.0%) $73.3b (0.7%) 32.8% (14.8%) $10.91 (34.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model