Discounted Cash Flow

Genuine Parts Co.

GPC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $15.3b $687.2m $785.4m 4.5% $4.61
2017 $16.3b (6.3%) $616.8m (-10.3%) $658.3m (-16.2%) 3.8% (-15.6%) $4.19 (-9.1%)
2018 $18.7b (14.9%) $810.5m (31.4%) $912.7m (38.7%) 4.3% (14.4%) $5.53 (32.0%)
2019 $19.4b (3.5%) $621.1m (-23.4%) $594.1m (-34.9%) 3.2% (-26.0%) $4.26 (-23.0%)
2020 $16.5b (-14.7%) $-29.1m (-104.7%) $-148.5m (-125.0%) -0.2% (-105.5%) $-0.20 (-104.7%)
2021 $18.9b (14.1%) $898.8m (3188.4%) $-266.1m (-79.3%) 4.8% (2806.6%) $6.27 (3235.0%)
2022 $22.1b (17.1%) $1.2b (31.6%) $-339.6m (-27.6%) 5.4% (12.4%) $8.36 (33.3%)
2023 $23.1b (4.5%) $1.3b (11.3%) $922.9m (371.7%) 5.7% (6.5%) $9.38 (12.2%)
2024 $23.5b (1.7%) $904.1m (-31.3%) $683.9m (-25.9%) 3.8% (-32.5%) $6.49 (-30.8%)
2025 $24.3b (3.5%) $65.9m (-92.7%) $420.9m (-38.5%) 0.3% (-93.0%) $0.47 (-92.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model