Discounted Cash Flow
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $380.3m | $23.8m | $-7.5m | 6.2% | $0.49 |
| 2017 | $454.4m (19.5%) | $15.0m (-37.0%) | $-19.0m (-152.4%) | 3.3% (-47.3%) | $0.30 (-38.8%) |
| 2018 | $623.6m (37.3%) | $51.6m (244.8%) | $-42.7m (-125.1%) | 8.3% (151.2%) | $1.02 (240.0%) |
| 2019 | $791.7m (26.9%) | $58.7m (13.6%) | $-24.6m (42.3%) | 7.4% (-10.5%) | $1.16 (13.7%) |
| 2020 | $976.0m (23.3%) | $113.7m (93.8%) | $32.2m (230.9%) | 11.6% (57.2%) | $2.25 (94.0%) |
| 2021 | $1.4b (43.7%) | $190.2m (67.3%) | $-94.4m (-392.9%) | 13.6% (16.4%) | $3.75 (66.7%) |
| 2022 | $1.8b (25.3%) | $291.9m (53.5%) | $88.7m (193.9%) | 16.6% (22.5%) | $6.07 (61.9%) |
| 2023 | $1.8b (1.1%) | $284.6m (-2.5%) | $205.5m (131.8%) | 16.0% (-3.6%) | $6.20 (2.1%) |
| 2024 | $2.1b (18.1%) | $381.6m (34.1%) | $21.5m (-89.5%) | 18.2% (13.5%) | $8.51 (37.3%) |
| 2025 | $2.0b (-2.8%) | $313.2m (-17.9%) | $208.4m (867.4%) | 15.4% (-15.5%) | $7.09 (-16.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.