Discounted Cash Flow

Green Brick Partners, Inc.

GRBK · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $380.3m $23.8m $-7.5m 6.2% $0.49
2017 $454.4m (19.5%) $15.0m (-37.0%) $-19.0m (-152.4%) 3.3% (-47.3%) $0.30 (-38.8%)
2018 $623.6m (37.3%) $51.6m (244.8%) $-42.7m (-125.1%) 8.3% (151.2%) $1.02 (240.0%)
2019 $791.7m (26.9%) $58.7m (13.6%) $-24.6m (42.3%) 7.4% (-10.5%) $1.16 (13.7%)
2020 $976.0m (23.3%) $113.7m (93.8%) $32.2m (230.9%) 11.6% (57.2%) $2.25 (94.0%)
2021 $1.4b (43.7%) $190.2m (67.3%) $-94.4m (-392.9%) 13.6% (16.4%) $3.75 (66.7%)
2022 $1.8b (25.3%) $291.9m (53.5%) $88.7m (193.9%) 16.6% (22.5%) $6.07 (61.9%)
2023 $1.8b (1.1%) $284.6m (-2.5%) $205.5m (131.8%) 16.0% (-3.6%) $6.20 (2.1%)
2024 $2.1b (18.1%) $381.6m (34.1%) $21.5m (-89.5%) 18.2% (13.5%) $8.51 (37.3%)
2025 $2.0b (-2.8%) $313.2m (-17.9%) $208.4m (867.4%) 15.4% (-15.5%) $7.09 (-16.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model