Discounted Cash Flow

Garmin Ltd.

GRMN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.0b $510.8m $614.7m 16.9% $2.71
2017 $3.1b (2.3%) $695.0m (36.0%) $521.1m (-15.2%) 22.5% (33.0%) $3.70 (36.5%)
2018 $3.3b (8.4%) $694.1m (-0.1%) $763.8m (46.6%) 20.7% (-7.9%) $3.68 (-0.5%)
2019 $3.8b (12.2%) $952.5m (37.2%) $580.5m (-24.0%) 25.3% (22.3%) $5.01 (36.1%)
2020 $4.2b (11.4%) $992.3m (4.2%) $949.9m (63.6%) 23.7% (-6.5%) $5.19 (3.6%)
2021 $5.0b (19.0%) $1.1b (9.1%) $704.8m (-25.8%) 21.7% (-8.4%) $5.63 (8.5%)
2022 $4.9b (-2.5%) $973.6m (-10.0%) $544.0m (-22.8%) 20.0% (-7.8%) $5.06 (-10.1%)
2023 $5.2b (7.6%) $1.3b (32.5%) $1.2b (117.4%) 24.7% (23.1%) $6.74 (33.2%)
2024 $6.3b (20.4%) $1.4b (9.4%) $1.2b (4.7%) 22.4% (-9.1%) $7.35 (9.1%)
2025 $7.2b (15.1%) $1.7b (17.9%) $1.4b (10.0%) 23.0% (2.5%) $8.65 (17.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model