Discounted Cash Flow

Goosehead Insurance, Inc.

GSHD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2018 $60.1m $-8.9m $8.2m -14.8% $-1.38
2019 $77.5m (28.8%) $3.6m (140.1%) $17.5m (114.5%) 4.6% (131.1%) $0.70 (150.7%)
2020 $117.0m (51.0%) $9.3m (160.4%) $14.7m (-16.4%) 7.9% (72.4%) $1.12 (60.0%)
2021 $151.3m (29.3%) $5.4m (-41.8%) $22.7m (54.8%) 3.6% (-55.0%) $0.43 (-61.3%)
2022 $209.4m (38.4%) $565.0k (-89.5%) $25.6m (12.7%) 0.3% (-92.4%) $0.13 (-71.0%)
2023 $261.3m (24.8%) $14.1m (2402.7%) $46.3m (80.9%) 5.4% (1905.7%) $0.99 (690.5%)
2024 $314.5m (20.4%) $30.4m (115.2%) $70.6m (52.4%) 9.7% (78.8%) $1.99 (101.1%)
2025 $365.3m (16.2%) $27.8m (-8.5%) $86.1m (22.0%) 7.6% (-21.2%) $1.78 (-10.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model