Discounted Cash Flow

GXO Logistics, Inc.

GXO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2019 $6.1b $60.0m $-77.0m 1.0% $0.52
2020 $6.2b (1.7%) $-31.0m (-151.7%) $111.0m (244.2%) -0.5% (-150.8%) $-0.27 (-151.9%)
2021 $7.9b (28.2%) $153.0m (593.5%) $205.0m (84.7%) 1.9% (485.1%) $1.33 (592.6%)
2022 $9.0b (13.3%) $197.0m (28.8%) $200.0m (-2.4%) 2.2% (13.7%) $1.68 (26.3%)
2023 $9.8b (8.7%) $229.0m (16.2%) $284.0m (42.0%) 2.3% (6.9%) $1.93 (14.9%)
2024 $11.7b (19.7%) $134.0m (-41.5%) $190.0m (-33.1%) 1.1% (-51.1%) $1.12 (-42.0%)
2025 $13.2b (12.5%) $32.0m (-76.1%) $110.0m (-42.1%) 0.2% (-78.8%) $0.28 (-75.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model