Discounted Cash Flow

HCI Group, Inc.

HCI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $264.4m $29.0m $87.1m 11.0% $2.95
2017 $244.4m (-7.6%) $-6.9m (-123.8%) $14.1m (-83.8%) -2.8% (-125.7%) $-0.75 (-125.4%)
2018 $231.3m (-5.4%) $17.7m (357.1%) $26.4m (87.5%) 7.7% (371.7%) $2.34 (412.0%)
2019 $242.5m (4.8%) $26.6m (49.9%) $51.2m (93.7%) 11.0% (43.0%) $3.32 (41.9%)
2020 $310.4m (28.0%) $27.6m (3.8%) $70.9m (38.5%) 8.9% (-18.9%) $3.55 (6.9%)
2021 $407.9m (31.4%) $1.9m (-93.3%) $93.2m (31.5%) 0.5% (-94.9%) $0.23 (-93.5%)
2022 $499.6m (22.5%) $-58.5m (-3252.5%) $-6.4m (-106.8%) -11.7% (-2674.2%) $-6.24 (-2813.0%)
2023 $550.7m (10.2%) $79.0m (235.1%) $224.2m (3628.3%) 14.4% (222.5%) $9.13 (246.3%)
2024 $750.1m (36.2%) $110.0m (39.1%) $327.8m (46.2%) 14.7% (2.1%) $10.59 (16.0%)
2025 $900.9m (20.1%) $299.0m (171.9%) $440.8m (34.5%) 33.2% (126.4%) $24.58 (132.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model