Discounted Cash Flow

Home Depot, Inc.

HD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $94.6b $8.0b $8.2b 8.4% $6.47
2018 $100.9b (6.7%) $8.6b (8.5%) $10.1b (24.2%) 8.6% (1.7%) $7.33 (13.3%)
2019 $108.2b (7.2%) $11.1b (28.9%) $10.6b (4.6%) 10.3% (20.2%) $9.78 (33.4%)
2020 $110.2b (1.9%) $11.2b (1.1%) $11.0b (4.2%) 10.2% (-0.8%) $10.29 (5.2%)
2021 $132.1b (19.9%) $12.9b (14.4%) $16.4b (48.3%) 9.7% (-4.5%) $11.98 (16.4%)
2022 $151.2b (14.4%) $16.4b (27.7%) $14.0b (-14.5%) 10.9% (11.6%) $15.59 (30.1%)
2023 $157.4b (4.1%) $17.1b (4.1%) $11.5b (-17.9%) 10.9% (-0.0%) $16.74 (7.4%)
2024 $152.7b (-3.0%) $15.1b (-11.5%) $17.9b (56.1%) 9.9% (-8.7%) $15.16 (-9.4%)
2025 $159.5b (4.5%) $14.8b (-2.2%) $16.3b (-9.0%) 9.3% (-6.4%) $14.96 (-1.3%)
2026 $164.7b (3.2%) $14.2b (-4.4%) $12.6b (-22.5%) 8.6% (-7.4%) $14.26 (-4.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model