Discounted Cash Flow

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

HGV · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.6b $167.6m $156.0m 10.6% $1.70
2017 $1.7b (8.1%) $326.8m (95.0%) $321.0m (105.8%) 19.1% (80.4%) $3.30 (94.1%)
2018 $2.0b (16.8%) $298.1m (-8.8%) $-203.0m (-163.2%) 14.9% (-21.9%) $3.07 (-7.0%)
2019 $1.8b (-8.1%) $215.7m (-27.6%) $108.0m (153.2%) 11.7% (-21.3%) $2.43 (-20.8%)
2020 $894.0m (-51.4%) $-200.7m (-193.1%) $71.0m (-34.3%) -22.5% (-291.3%) $-2.36 (-197.1%)
2021 $2.3b (161.2%) $176.4m (187.9%) $150.0m (111.3%) 7.6% (133.7%) $1.77 (175.0%)
2022 $3.8b (64.2%) $352.0m (99.5%) $689.0m (359.3%) 9.2% (21.5%) $2.98 (68.4%)
2023 $4.0b (3.7%) $313.0m (-11.1%) $281.0m (-59.2%) 7.9% (-14.3%) $2.84 (-4.7%)
2024 $4.5b (12.2%) $47.0m (-85.0%) $267.0m (-5.0%) 1.1% (-86.6%) $0.46 (-83.8%)
2025 $4.5b (1.1%) $81.0m (72.3%) $230.0m (-13.9%) 1.8% (70.5%) $0.90 (95.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model