Discounted Cash Flow

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

HLT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $11.7b $348.0m $1.0b 3.0% $1.06
2017 $9.1b (-21.6%) $1.3b (261.8%) $866.0m (-16.2%) 13.8% (361.6%) $3.88 (266.0%)
2018 $8.9b (-2.6%) $764.0m (-39.3%) $1.2b (36.6%) 8.6% (-37.7%) $2.53 (-34.8%)
2019 $9.5b (6.1%) $881.0m (15.3%) $1.3b (10.1%) 9.3% (8.7%) $3.07 (21.3%)
2020 $4.3b (-54.4%) $-715.0m (-181.2%) $662.0m (-49.2%) -16.6% (-278.1%) $-2.58 (-184.0%)
2021 $5.8b (34.4%) $410.0m (157.3%) $74.0m (-88.8%) 7.1% (142.7%) $1.47 (157.0%)
2022 $8.8b (51.6%) $1.3b (206.1%) $1.6b (2118.9%) 14.3% (101.9%) $4.56 (210.2%)
2023 $10.2b (16.7%) $1.1b (-9.1%) $1.8b (9.3%) 11.1% (-22.1%) $4.36 (-4.4%)
2024 $11.2b (9.2%) $1.5b (34.5%) $1.9b (6.8%) 13.7% (23.2%) $6.20 (42.2%)
2025 $12.0b (7.7%) $1.5b (-5.1%) $2.0b (5.8%) 12.1% (-11.9%) $6.18 (-0.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model