Discounted Cash Flow

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. ADR

HMY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $19.5b $-148.0m $-86.0m -0.8% $0.79
2018 $1.6b (-91.9%) $-321.0m (-116.9%) $-678.0m (-688.4%) -20.3% (-2569.2%) $-0.72 (-191.1%)
2019 $26.9b (1599.0%) $-2.6b (-712.1%) $-356.0m (47.5%) -9.7% (52.2%) $-4.98 (-591.7%)
2020 $29.2b (8.7%) $-878.0m (66.3%) $1.1b (414.9%) -3.0% (69.0%) $-1.64 (67.1%)
2021 $41.7b (42.7%) $5.1b (679.4%) $4.0b (260.1%) 12.2% (506.0%) $8.42 (613.4%)
2022 $42.6b (2.2%) $-1.1b (-120.7%) $710.0m (-82.4%) -2.5% (-120.2%) $-1.72 (-120.4%)
2023 $49.3b (15.5%) $4.8b (558.2%) $2.3b (225.1%) 9.8% (496.5%) $7.80 (553.5%)
2024 $61.4b (24.6%) $8.6b (78.2%) $7.3b (214.2%) 14.0% (43.0%) $13.86 (77.7%)
2025 $73.9b (20.4%) $14.4b (67.5%) $10.8b (48.8%) 19.5% (39.1%) $23.13 (66.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model