Discounted Cash Flow
Harley-davidson, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $6.0b | $692.2m | $918.1m | 11.5% | $3.85 |
| 2017 | $5.6b (-5.8%) | $521.8m (-24.6%) | $798.8m (-13.0%) | 9.2% (-20.0%) | $3.03 (-21.3%) |
| 2018 | $5.7b (1.2%) | $531.5m (1.9%) | $992.4m (24.2%) | 9.3% (0.6%) | $3.21 (5.9%) |
| 2019 | $5.4b (-6.2%) | $423.6m (-20.3%) | $686.8m (-30.8%) | 7.9% (-15.0%) | $2.70 (-15.9%) |
| 2020 | $4.1b (-24.4%) | $1.3m (-99.7%) | $1.0b (52.4%) | 0.0% (-99.6%) | $0.01 (-99.6%) |
| 2021 | $5.3b (31.6%) | $650.0m (49978.9%) | $855.5m (-18.3%) | 12.2% (37948.5%) | $4.23 (42200.0%) |
| 2022 | $5.8b (7.8%) | $741.4m (14.1%) | $396.8m (-53.6%) | 12.9% (5.8%) | $5.01 (18.4%) |
| 2023 | $5.8b (1.4%) | $706.6m (-4.7%) | $547.5m (38.0%) | 12.1% (-6.0%) | $4.96 (-1.0%) |
| 2024 | $5.2b (-11.1%) | $455.4m (-35.6%) | $867.3m (58.4%) | 8.8% (-27.5%) | $3.46 (-30.2%) |
| 2025 | $4.5b (-13.8%) | $338.7m (-25.6%) | $415.2m (-52.1%) | 7.6% (-13.7%) | $2.82 (-18.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.