Discounted Cash Flow

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.

HOV · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.8b $-2.8m $379.7m -0.1% $-0.02
2017 $2.5b (-10.9%) $-332.2m (-11684.1%) $291.1m (-23.3%) -13.5% (-13128.8%) $-2.25 (-11150.0%)
2018 $2.0b (-18.8%) $4.5m (101.4%) $-72.0m (-124.7%) 0.2% (101.7%) $0.03 (101.3%)
2019 $2.0b (1.3%) $-42.1m (-1031.8%) $-253.1m (-251.5%) -2.1% (-1019.9%) $-7.06 (-23633.3%)
2020 $2.3b (16.2%) $50.9m (220.9%) $289.4m (214.3%) 2.2% (204.1%) $7.48 (205.9%)
2021 $2.8b (18.7%) $607.8m (1093.5%) $204.3m (-29.4%) 21.8% (905.2%) $87.50 (1069.8%)
2022 $2.9b (5.0%) $214.8m (-64.7%) $76.9m (-62.4%) 7.4% (-66.3%) $30.31 (-65.4%)
2023 $2.8b (-5.7%) $195.2m (-9.1%) $416.5m (441.7%) 7.1% (-3.6%) $28.76 (-5.1%)
2024 $3.0b (9.0%) $231.3m (18.5%) $5.8m (-98.6%) 7.7% (8.7%) $34.40 (19.6%)
2025 $3.0b (-0.9%) $53.2m (-77.0%) $166.2m (2774.6%) 1.8% (-76.8%) $7.95 (-76.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model