Discounted Cash Flow

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.

HRTG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $439.0m $33.9m $73.5m 7.7% $1.14
2017 $406.6m (-7.4%) $-1.1m (-103.3%) $7.2m (-90.2%) -0.3% (-103.6%) $-0.04 (-103.5%)
2018 $480.2m (18.1%) $27.2m (2526.7%) $93.1m (1197.1%) 5.7% (2155.0%) $1.05 (2725.0%)
2019 $511.3m (6.5%) $28.6m (5.5%) $114.7m (23.1%) 5.6% (-1.0%) $0.98 (-6.7%)
2020 $593.4m (16.1%) $9.3m (-67.4%) $9.3m (-91.9%) 1.6% (-71.9%) $0.33 (-66.3%)
2021 $631.6m (6.4%) $-74.7m (-901.3%) $59.1m (534.0%) -11.8% (-852.8%) $-2.69 (-915.2%)
2022 $662.5m (4.9%) $-154.4m (-106.6%) $-35.9m (-160.8%) -23.3% (-96.9%) $-5.86 (-117.8%)
2023 $735.5m (11.0%) $45.3m (129.4%) $60.5m (268.4%) 6.2% (126.4%) $1.73 (129.5%)
2024 $817.0m (11.1%) $61.5m (35.8%) $78.9m (30.3%) 7.5% (22.3%) $2.01 (16.2%)
2025 $847.3m (3.7%) $195.6m (217.8%) $174.2m (120.8%) 23.1% (206.5%) $6.33 (214.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model