Discounted Cash Flow

Hsbc Holdings Plc. ADR

HSBC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $42.4b $2.5b $2.5b 5.8% $0.07
2017 $41.0b (-3.3%) $10.8b (335.6%) $-13.5b (-643.7%) 26.3% (350.7%) $0.48 (585.7%)
2018 $49.6b (21.0%) $13.7b (27.1%) $4.5b (133.2%) 27.7% (5.1%) $0.63 (31.3%)
2019 $54.7b (10.3%) $7.4b (-46.2%) $28.7b (542.9%) 13.5% (-51.2%) $0.30 (-52.4%)
2020 $41.8b (-23.7%) $5.2b (-29.2%) $5.2b (-81.8%) 12.5% (-7.2%) $0.19 (-36.7%)
2021 $36.2b (-13.3%) $13.9b (166.2%) $104.3b (1894.9%) 38.5% (207.1%) $0.62 (226.3%)
2022 $55.1b (52.1%) $16.0b (15.2%) $14.9b (-85.7%) 29.1% (-24.3%) $0.75 (21.0%)
2023 $100.9b (83.2%) $30.3b (89.3%) $35.4b (137.0%) 30.1% (3.3%) $1.15 (53.3%)
2024 $108.6b (7.7%) $32.3b (6.5%) $61.4b (73.4%) 29.7% (-1.1%) $1.25 (8.7%)
2025 $97.9b (-9.9%) $29.9b (-7.4%) $25.1b (-59.1%) 30.6% (2.7%) $1.21 (-3.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model