Discounted Cash Flow

Hershey Co.

HSY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $7.4b $720.0m $714.0m 9.7%
2017 $7.5b (1.0%) $783.0m (8.7%) $991.8m (38.9%) 10.4% (7.7%)
2018 $7.8b (3.7%) $1.2b (50.4%) $1.3b (28.2%) 15.1% (45.1%)
2019 $8.0b (2.5%) $1.1b (-2.4%) $1.4b (13.7%) 14.4% (-4.8%)
2020 $8.1b (2.0%) $1.3b (11.2%) $1.3b (-13.0%) 15.7% (9.0%)
2021 $9.0b (10.1%) $1.5b (15.5%) $1.6b (26.2%) 16.5% (5.0%)
2022 $10.4b (16.1%) $1.6b (11.3%) $1.8b (13.9%) 15.8% (-4.1%)
2023 $11.2b (7.2%) $1.9b (13.2%) $1.6b (-14.2%) 16.7% (5.6%)
2024 $11.2b (0.3%) $2.2b (19.3%) $1.9b (24.1%) 19.8% (18.9%)
2025 $11.7b (4.4%) $883.3m (-60.2%) $1.8b (-5.3%) 7.6% (-61.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model