Discounted Cash Flow

Hilltop Holdings Inc.

HTH · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $456.0m $145.9m 32.0% $1.48
2017 $507.2m (11.2%) $132.5m (-9.2%) $-326.3m 26.1% (-18.3%) $1.36 (-8.1%)
2018 $579.4m (14.3%) $121.4m (-8.4%) $389.5m (219.4%) 21.0% (-19.8%) $1.28 (-5.9%)
2019 $614.8m (6.1%) $225.3m (85.5%) $-433.0m (-211.2%) 36.6% (74.8%) $2.44 (90.6%)
2020 $546.5m (-11.1%) $447.8m (98.8%) $280.4m (164.8%) 81.9% (123.6%) $5.02 (105.7%)
2021 $530.0m (-3.0%) $374.5m (-16.4%) $765.6m (173.0%) 70.7% (-13.8%) $4.64 (-7.6%)
2022 $591.1m (11.5%) $113.1m (-69.8%) $113.1m (-85.2%) 19.1% (-72.9%) $1.61 (-65.3%)
2023 $520.3m (-12.0%) $109.6m (-3.1%) $434.5m (284.1%) 21.1% (10.1%) $1.69 (5.0%)
2024 $540.1m (3.8%) $113.2m (3.3%) $266.8m (-38.6%) 21.0% (-0.5%) $1.74 (3.0%)
2025 $609.5m (12.9%) $165.6m (46.3%) $-55.5m (-120.8%) 27.2% (29.6%) $2.64 (51.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model