Discounted Cash Flow

H World Group Ltd. ADR

HTHT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $941.8m $17.2m $17.2m 1.8% $0.42
2017 $1.3b (33.3%) $28.1m (64.1%) $272.3m (1487.8%) 2.2% (23.1%) $0.68 (61.9%)
2018 $1.5b (16.6%) $15.4m (-45.3%) $15.4m (-94.3%) 1.1% (-53.1%) $0.37 (-45.6%)
2019 $11.2b (665.8%) $37.6m (144.2%) $37.6m (144.2%) 0.3% (-68.1%) $0.89 (140.5%)
2020 $10.2b (-9.1%) $-49.7m (-232.3%) $-49.7m (-232.3%) -0.5% (-245.5%) $-1.15 (-229.2%)
2021 $12.8b (25.4%) $-10.8m (78.3%) $178.5m (458.9%) -0.1% (82.7%) $-0.02 (98.3%)
2022 $13.9b (8.4%) $-39.1m (-261.6%) $135.0m (-24.4%) -0.3% (-233.5%) $-0.08 (-300.0%)
2023 $21.9b (57.9%) $85.1m (317.8%) $85.1m (-37.0%) 0.4% (238.0%) $0.18 (325.0%)
2024 $23.9b (9.2%) $61.9m (-27.3%) $61.9m (-27.3%) 0.3% (-33.4%) $0.13 (-27.8%)
2025 $25.3b (5.9%) $107.4m (73.7%) $107.4m (73.7%) 0.4% (64.0%) $0.24 (84.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model