Discounted Cash Flow

Humana Inc.

HUM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $54.0b $614.0m $1.4b 1.1% $4.11
2017 $53.4b (-1.2%) $2.4b (298.7%) $3.5b (150.2%) 4.6% (303.4%) $16.94 (312.2%)
2018 $56.9b (6.7%) $1.7b (-31.2%) $1.6b (-55.7%) 3.0% (-35.5%) $12.24 (-27.7%)
2019 $64.9b (14.0%) $2.7b (60.8%) $4.5b (191.4%) 4.2% (41.1%) $20.20 (65.0%)
2020 $77.2b (18.9%) $3.4b (24.4%) $4.7b (2.8%) 4.4% (4.6%) $25.47 (26.1%)
2021 $83.1b (7.7%) $2.9b (-12.9%) $946.0m (-79.8%) 3.5% (-19.1%) $22.79 (-10.5%)
2022 $92.9b (11.8%) $2.8b (-4.3%) $3.5b (266.5%) 3.0% (-14.4%) $22.20 (-2.6%)
2023 $106.4b (14.5%) $2.5b (-11.3%) $3.0b (-14.1%) 2.3% (-22.6%) $20.09 (-9.5%)
2024 $117.8b (10.7%) $1.2b (-51.5%) $2.4b (-19.7%) 1.0% (-56.2%) $10.01 (-50.2%)
2025 $129.7b (10.1%) $1.2b (-1.6%) $375.0m (-84.3%) 0.9% (-10.6%) $9.87 (-1.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model