Discounted Cash Flow

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

HWM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $-941.0m $-255.0m $-2.31
2017 $-74.0m (92.1%) $105.0m (141.2%) $-0.28 (87.9%)
2018 $14.0b $642.0m (967.6%) $-551.0m (-624.8%) 4.6% $1.33 (575.0%)
2019 $14.2b (1.3%) $470.0m (-26.8%) $-180.0m (67.3%) 3.3% (-27.7%) $1.05 (-21.1%)
2020 $5.3b (-62.9%) $261.0m (-44.5%) $-258.0m (-43.3%) 5.0% (49.9%)
2021 $5.0b (-5.5%) $258.0m (-1.1%) $250.0m (196.9%) 5.2% (4.6%) $0.60
2022 $5.7b (13.9%) $469.0m (81.8%) $540.0m (116.0%) 8.3% (59.6%) $1.12 (86.7%)
2023 $6.6b (17.3%) $765.0m (63.1%) $682.0m (26.3%) 11.5% (39.1%) $1.85 (65.2%)
2024 $7.4b (11.9%) $1.2b (51.0%) $977.0m (43.3%) 15.5% (34.9%) $2.83 (53.0%)
2025 $8.3b (11.1%) $1.5b (30.6%) $1.4b (46.5%) 18.3% (17.6%) $3.73 (31.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model