Discounted Cash Flow

International Business Machines Corp.

IBM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $79.9b $11.9b $13.4b 14.9% $11.88
2017 $79.1b (-1.0%) $5.8b (-51.5%) $13.5b (0.8%) 7.3% (-51.1%) $5.90 (-50.4%)
2018 $79.6b (0.6%) $8.7b (51.7%) $11.9b (-12.2%) 11.0% (50.9%) $9.15 (55.1%)
2019 $77.1b (-3.1%) $9.4b (8.1%) $12.5b (5.3%) 12.2% (11.5%) $10.16 (11.1%)
2020 $73.6b (-4.6%) $5.6b (-40.7%) $15.6b (24.8%) 7.6% (-37.9%) $6.00 (-40.9%)
2021 $57.4b (-22.1%) $5.7b (2.7%) $10.7b (-31.1%) 10.0% (31.9%) $6.41 (6.8%)
2022 $60.5b (5.5%) $1.6b (-71.5%) $9.1b (-15.3%) 2.7% (-73.0%) $1.82 (-71.6%)
2023 $61.9b (2.2%) $7.5b (357.7%) $12.7b (39.6%) 12.1% (347.9%) $8.23 (352.2%)
2024 $62.8b (1.4%) $6.0b (-19.7%) $12.4b (-2.3%) 9.6% (-20.9%) $6.53 (-20.7%)
2025 $67.5b (7.6%) $10.6b (75.9%) $12.1b (-2.4%) 15.7% (63.4%) $11.36 (74.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model