Discounted Cash Flow

Incyte Corp.

INCY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.1b $104.2m $184.5m 9.4% $0.55
2017 $1.5b (38.9%) $-313.1m (-400.5%) $-204.0m (-210.6%) -20.4% (-316.3%) $-1.53 (-378.2%)
2018 $1.9b (22.5%) $109.5m (135.0%) $262.7m (228.8%) 5.8% (128.5%) $0.52 (134.0%)
2019 $2.2b (14.7%) $446.9m (308.2%) $632.6m (140.8%) 20.7% (255.8%) $2.08 (300.0%)
2020 $2.7b (23.5%) $-295.7m (-166.2%) $-312.0m (-149.3%) -11.1% (-153.6%) $-1.36 (-165.4%)
2021 $3.0b (12.0%) $948.6m (420.8%) $568.5m (282.2%) 31.8% (386.5%) $4.30 (416.2%)
2022 $3.4b (13.7%) $340.7m (-64.1%) $892.1m (56.9%) 10.0% (-68.4%) $1.53 (-64.4%)
2023 $3.7b (8.9%) $597.6m (75.4%) $449.0m (-49.7%) 16.2% (61.1%) $2.67 (74.5%)
2024 $4.2b (14.8%) $32.6m (-94.5%) $235.2m (-47.6%) 0.8% (-95.2%) $0.16 (-94.0%)
2025 $5.1b (21.2%) $1.3b (3845.0%) $1.3b (465.4%) 25.0% (3154.4%) $6.59 (4018.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model