Discounted Cash Flow

Intuitive Surgical Inc.

ISRG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.7b $735.9m $1.0b 27.2% $19.21
2017 $3.1b (15.7%) $660.0m (-10.3%) $1.1b (9.7%) 21.1% (-22.5%) $5.91 (-69.2%)
2018 $3.7b (19.0%) $1.1b (70.9%) $1.2b (2.2%) 30.3% (43.6%) $9.92 (67.9%)
2019 $4.5b (20.3%) $1.4b (22.3%) $1.6b (36.6%) 30.8% (1.7%) $11.95 (20.5%)
2020 $4.4b (-2.7%) $1.1b (-23.1%) $1.5b (-7.1%) 24.3% (-21.0%) $9.06 (-24.2%)
2021 $5.7b (31.0%) $1.7b (60.7%) $2.1b (40.7%) 29.9% (22.7%) $4.79 (-47.1%)
2022 $6.2b (9.0%) $1.3b (-22.4%) $958.4m (-54.1%) 21.3% (-28.8%) $3.72 (-22.3%)
2023 $7.1b (14.5%) $1.8b (36.0%) $749.6m (-21.8%) 25.2% (18.8%) $5.12 (37.6%)
2024 $8.4b (17.2%) $2.3b (29.2%) $1.3b (73.9%) 27.8% (10.2%) $6.54 (27.7%)
2025 $10.1b (20.5%) $2.9b (23.0%) $2.5b (91.0%) 28.4% (2.0%) $8.00 (22.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model