Discounted Cash Flow

Johnson Controls International Plc.

JCI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.9b $68.0m $646.0m 3.6% $-1.30
2017 $2.4b (28.4%) $51.4m (-24.4%) $51.4m (-92.0%) 2.1% (-41.1%) $1.77 (236.2%)
2018 $2.8b (16.0%) $97.7m (90.1%) $97.7m (90.1%) 3.5% (63.9%) $2.34 (32.2%)
2019 $3.0b (7.8%) $102.9m (5.4%) $102.9m (5.4%) 3.4% (-2.3%) $1.26 (-46.2%)
2020 $2.8b (-8.5%) $49.1m (-52.3%) $49.1m (-52.3%) 1.8% (-47.9%) $0.84 (-33.3%)
2021 $4.1b (46.7%) $-390.3m (-895.4%) $-616.0m (-1355.2%) -9.5% (-642.1%) $2.11 (151.2%)
2022 $4.5b (9.1%) $46.3m (111.8%) $46.3m (107.5%) 1.0% (110.9%) $2.19 (3.8%)
2023 $4.3b (-2.8%) $65.5m (41.7%) $65.5m (41.7%) 1.5% (45.8%) $2.69 (22.8%)
2024 $4.8b (11.2%) $161.7m (146.7%) $1.1b (1538.6%) 3.4% (121.8%) $2.08 (-22.7%)
2025 $5.6b (15.3%) $103.1m (-36.2%) $103.1m (-90.4%) 1.9% (-44.7%) $2.63 (26.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model