Discounted Cash Flow

Jd.com, Inc. ADR

JD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $37.5b $-81.1m $-81.1m -0.2% $-0.20
2017 $55.7b (48.6%) $-1.7m (97.9%) $3.2b (4026.2%) -0.0% (98.6%) $-0.01 (95.0%)
2018 $67.2b (20.7%) $-414.5m (-23799.6%) $1.6b (-48.3%) -0.6% (-19706.4%) $-0.13 (-1200.0%)
2019 $82.9b (23.3%) $1.8b (535.1%) $3.3b (99.2%) 2.2% (452.8%) $0.60 (561.5%)
2020 $114.3b (37.9%) $7.3b (305.5%) $5.8b (76.6%) 6.4% (194.0%) $2.51 (318.3%)
2021 $149.3b (30.6%) $-526.9m (-107.2%) $-526.9m (-109.1%) -0.4% (-105.5%) $-0.18 (-107.2%)
2022 $151.7b (1.6%) $1.5b (391.6%) $8.4b (1701.7%) 1.0% (387.0%) $0.48 (366.7%)
2023 $152.8b (0.7%) $3.6b (132.8%) $8.7b (3.4%) 2.3% (131.2%) $1.08 (125.0%)
2024 $158.8b (3.9%) $6.1b (71.1%) $7.8b (-10.5%) 3.9% (64.7%) $1.90 (75.9%)
2025 $187.2b (17.9%) $2.9b (-52.5%) $1.7b (-78.8%) 1.6% (-59.7%) $0.99 (-47.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model