Discounted Cash Flow

Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

JEF · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $10.9b $125.9m $608.8m 1.2% $0.34
2017 $12.4b (14.1%) $167.4m (32.9%) $1.1b (76.2%) 1.3% (16.5%) $0.45 (32.4%)
2018 $3.1b (-74.9%) $1.0b (510.9%) $691.1m (-35.6%) 32.8% (2329.7%) $2.93 (551.1%)
2019 $2.8b (-10.6%) $959.6m (-6.1%) $-827.8m (-219.8%) 34.4% (4.9%) $3.07 (4.8%)
2020 $3.9b (40.6%) $769.6m (-19.8%) $2.1b (350.8%) 19.6% (-43.0%) $2.68 (-12.7%)
2021 $6.1b (56.5%) $1.7b (116.7%) $1.6b (-24.2%) 27.1% (38.4%) $6.29 (134.7%)
2022 $4.7b (-22.8%) $774.2m (-53.6%) $1.6b (0.5%) 16.3% (-39.9%) $3.13 (-50.2%)
2023 $3.2b (-31.8%) $260.9m (-66.3%) $-1.9b (-222.4%) 8.1% (-50.6%) $1.12 (-64.2%)
2024 $4.9b (50.3%) $669.3m (156.5%) $-391.1m (79.8%) 13.8% (70.7%) $3.08 (175.0%)
2025 $5.5b (14.2%) $630.8m (-5.7%) $-1.7b (-335.4%) 11.4% (-17.4%) $2.93 (-4.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model