Discounted Cash Flow

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $18.1b $15.4b $15.8b 85.1% $2.95
2017 $76.5b (322.2%) $1.3b (-91.6%) $1.3b (-91.8%) 1.7% (-98.0%) $0.48 (-83.7%)
2018 $81.6b (6.7%) $15.3b (1076.7%) $18.5b (1325.5%) 18.8% (1002.7%) $5.70 (1087.5%)
2019 $82.1b (0.6%) $15.1b (-1.2%) $19.9b (7.5%) 18.4% (-1.7%) $5.72 (0.4%)
2020 $82.6b (0.6%) $14.7b (-2.7%) $20.2b (1.4%) 17.8% (-3.3%) $5.59 (-2.3%)
2021 $93.8b (13.6%) $20.9b (41.9%) $19.9b (-1.5%) 22.3% (25.0%) $7.93 (41.9%)
2022 $94.9b (1.2%) $20.9b (0.0%) $19.8b (-0.6%) 22.0% (-1.2%) $7.93 (0.0%)
2023 $85.2b (-10.3%) $35.2b (68.4%) $16.7b (-15.7%) 41.3% (87.7%) $13.88 (75.0%)
2024 $88.8b (4.3%) $14.1b (-60.0%) $19.8b (19.2%) 15.8% (-61.6%) $5.84 (-57.9%)
2025 $94.2b (6.0%) $26.8b (90.6%) $19.7b (-0.7%) 28.5% (79.7%) $11.13 (90.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model