Discounted Cash Flow

ST JOE Co.

JOE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $95.7m $15.9m $10.0m 16.6% $0.21
2017 $98.8m (3.2%) $59.6m (274.8%) $52.8m (428.9%) 60.3% (263.2%) $0.84 (300.0%)
2018 $110.3m (11.6%) $32.4m (-45.7%) $38.8m (-26.5%) 29.4% (-51.3%) $0.52 (-38.1%)
2019 $127.1m (15.2%) $26.8m (-17.3%) $21.0m (-45.8%) 21.1% (-28.2%) $0.45 (-13.5%)
2020 $160.6m (26.3%) $45.2m (68.8%) $31.6m (50.4%) 28.2% (33.6%) $0.77 (71.1%)
2021 $267.0m (66.3%) $74.6m (64.9%) $107.5m (239.7%) 27.9% (-0.8%) $1.27 (64.9%)
2022 $252.3m (-5.5%) $70.9m (-4.9%) $40.9m (-62.0%) 28.1% (0.7%) $1.21 (-4.7%)
2023 $389.3m (54.3%) $77.7m (9.6%) $97.7m (139.0%) 20.0% (-29.0%) $1.33 (9.9%)
2024 $402.7m (3.5%) $74.2m (-4.5%) $100.2m (2.6%) 18.4% (-7.7%) $1.27 (-4.5%)
2025 $513.2m (27.4%) $115.6m (55.9%) $186.6m (86.2%) 22.5% (22.3%) $2.00 (57.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model