Discounted Cash Flow

Kaiser Aluminum Corp.

KALU · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.3b $91.7m $88.2m 6.9% $5.15
2017 $1.4b (5.0%) $45.4m (-50.5%) $66.0m (-25.2%) 3.2% (-52.9%) $2.67 (-48.2%)
2018 $1.6b (13.5%) $91.7m (102.0%) $76.1m (15.3%) 5.8% (78.0%) $5.53 (107.1%)
2019 $1.5b (-4.5%) $62.0m (-32.4%) $172.1m (126.1%) 4.1% (-29.2%) $3.88 (-29.8%)
2020 $1.2b (-22.5%) $28.8m (-53.5%) $155.0m (-9.9%) 2.5% (-40.0%) $1.82 (-53.1%)
2021 $2.6b (123.6%) $-18.5m (-164.2%) $21.4m (-86.2%) -0.7% (-128.7%) $-1.17 (-164.3%)
2022 $3.4b (30.7%) $-29.6m (-60.0%) $-205.6m (-1060.7%) -0.9% (-22.4%) $-1.86 (-59.0%)
2023 $3.1b (-9.9%) $47.2m (259.5%) $68.7m (133.4%) 1.5% (277.1%) $2.95 (258.6%)
2024 $3.0b (-2.0%) $46.8m (-0.8%) $-13.7m (-119.9%) 1.5% (1.2%) $2.91 (-1.4%)
2025 $3.4b (11.5%) $112.5m (140.4%) $-25.5m (-86.1%) 3.3% (115.5%) $6.96 (139.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model