Discounted Cash Flow

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

KDP · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $6.4b $847.0m $759.0m 13.2% $4.57
2017 $6.7b (3.9%) $1.1b (27.0%) $836.0m (10.1%) 16.1% (22.3%) $5.91 (29.3%)
2018 $7.4b (11.2%) $586.0m (-45.5%) $1.4b (71.4%) 7.9% (-51.0%) $0.54 (-90.9%)
2019 $11.1b (49.4%) $1.3b (114.0%) $2.1b (49.6%) 11.3% (43.2%) $0.89 (64.8%)
2020 $11.6b (4.5%) $1.3b (5.7%) $2.0b (-6.9%) 11.4% (1.1%) $0.94 (5.6%)
2021 $12.7b (9.2%) $2.1b (62.0%) $2.5b (22.9%) 16.9% (48.4%) $1.52 (61.7%)
2022 $14.1b (10.8%) $1.4b (-33.1%) $2.5b (1.3%) 10.2% (-39.6%) $1.01 (-33.6%)
2023 $14.8b (5.4%) $2.2b (51.9%) $904.0m (-63.6%) 14.7% (44.1%) $1.56 (54.5%)
2024 $15.4b (3.6%) $1.4b (-33.9%) $1.7b (83.2%) 9.4% (-36.2%) $1.06 (-32.1%)
2025 $16.6b (8.2%) $2.1b (44.3%) $1.5b (-9.1%) 12.5% (33.4%) $1.53 (44.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model