Discounted Cash Flow

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.

KNSL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $141.6m $26.2m $73.2m 18.5% $2.03
2017 $186.8m (31.9%) $24.9m (-4.8%) $77.2m (5.5%) 13.3% (-27.8%) $1.19 (-41.4%)
2018 $222.1m (18.9%) $33.8m (35.7%) $102.7m (33.0%) 15.2% (14.1%) $1.60 (34.5%)
2019 $315.9m (42.2%) $63.3m (87.4%) $158.7m (54.6%) 20.0% (31.8%) $2.94 (83.7%)
2020 $459.9m (45.6%) $88.4m (39.6%) $247.1m (55.7%) 19.2% (-4.1%) $3.96 (34.7%)
2021 $639.8m (39.1%) $152.7m (72.7%) $401.1m (62.3%) 23.9% (24.1%) $6.73 (69.9%)
2022 $819.2m (28.0%) $159.1m (4.2%) $550.9m (37.3%) 19.4% (-18.6%) $6.97 (3.6%)
2023 $1.2b (49.5%) $308.1m (93.6%) $853.2m (54.9%) 25.2% (29.5%) $13.37 (91.8%)
2024 $1.6b (29.7%) $414.8m (34.6%) $952.4m (11.6%) 26.1% (3.9%) $17.92 (34.0%)
2025 $1.9b (18.0%) $503.6m (21.4%) $990.1m (4.0%) 26.9% (2.8%) $21.76 (21.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model