Discounted Cash Flow

Lithia Motors Inc.

LAD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $8.7b $197.1m $-14.2m 2.3% $7.76
2017 $10.1b (16.2%) $245.2m (24.4%) $43.5m (405.2%) 2.4% (7.1%) $9.78 (26.0%)
2018 $11.8b (17.2%) $265.7m (8.4%) $361.7m (731.9%) 2.2% (-7.5%) $10.91 (11.6%)
2019 $12.7b (7.2%) $271.5m (2.2%) $374.6m (3.6%) 2.1% (-4.7%) $11.70 (7.2%)
2020 $13.1b (3.6%) $470.3m (73.2%) $374.4m (-0.1%) 3.6% (67.3%) $19.74 (68.7%)
2021 $22.8b (74.0%) $1.1b (125.4%) $1.5b (310.5%) 4.6% (29.6%) $36.81 (86.5%)
2022 $28.2b (23.5%) $1.3b (18.0%) $-913.2m (-159.4%) 4.4% (-4.4%) $44.38 (20.6%)
2023 $31.0b (10.1%) $1.0b (-20.0%) $-702.6m (23.1%) 3.2% (-27.4%) $36.36 (-18.1%)
2024 $36.2b (16.6%) $802.0m (-19.9%) $73.7m (110.5%) 2.2% (-31.3%) $29.71 (-18.3%)
2025 $37.6b (4.0%) $819.6m (2.2%) $5.8m (-92.1%) 2.2% (-1.7%) $32.38 (9.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model