Discounted Cash Flow

Li Auto Inc. ADR

LI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017
2018 $68.1m $-173.0m $-208.9m -253.9% $-7.25
2019 $284.4m (317.4%) $-484.1m (-179.8%) $-283.6m (-35.7%) -170.3% (33.0%) $-12.87 (-77.5%)
2020 $1.4b (409.7%) $-18.3m (96.2%) $-18.3m (93.5%) -1.3% (99.3%) $-0.91 (92.9%)
2021 $4.2b (192.4%) $-7.5m (59.2%) $-7.5m (59.2%) -0.2% (86.0%) $-0.03 (96.7%)
2022 $6.6b (54.9%) $-43.3m (-478.4%) $-43.3m (-478.4%) -0.7% (-273.3%) $-0.15 (-400.0%)
2023 $123.9b (1786.3%) $1.8b (4147.8%) $7.3b (16857.4%) 1.4% (314.6%) $0.84 (660.0%)
2024 $144.5b (16.6%) $1.2b (-31.9%) $1.9b (-73.7%) 0.8% (-41.6%) $0.55 (-34.5%)
2025 $112.3b (-22.3%) $166.9m (-86.0%) $166.9m (-91.3%) 0.1% (-82.0%) $0.08 (-85.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model