Discounted Cash Flow

ELI Lilly & Co.

LLY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $21.2b $2.7b $3.8b 12.9% $2.59
2017 $22.9b (7.8%) $-204.1m (-107.5%) $4.5b (19.0%) -0.9% (-106.9%) $-0.19 (-107.3%)
2018 $21.5b (-6.0%) $3.2b (1683.5%) $4.3b (-5.0%) 15.0% (1785.1%) $3.14 (1752.6%)
2019 $22.3b (3.8%) $8.3b (157.4%) $3.8b (-11.9%) 37.3% (147.8%) $8.93 (184.4%)
2020 $24.5b (9.9%) $6.2b (-25.5%) $5.1b (34.4%) 25.2% (-32.3%) $6.82 (-23.6%)
2021 $28.3b (15.4%) $5.6b (-9.9%) $6.0b (16.4%) 19.7% (-21.9%) $6.15 (-9.8%)
2022 $28.5b (0.8%) $6.2b (11.9%) $4.6b (-22.7%) 21.9% (11.0%) $6.93 (12.7%)
2023 $34.1b (19.6%) $5.2b (-16.1%) $-3.2b (-168.5%) 15.4% (-29.8%) $5.82 (-16.0%)
2024 $45.0b (32.0%) $10.6b (102.1%) $414.0m (113.1%) 23.5% (53.1%) $11.76 (102.1%)
2025 $65.2b (44.7%) $20.6b (94.9%) $6.0b (1340.6%) 31.7% (34.7%) $23.00 (95.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model