Discounted Cash Flow
ELI Lilly & Co.
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—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $21.2b | $2.7b | $3.8b | 12.9% | $2.59 |
| 2017 | $22.9b (7.8%) | $-204.1m (-107.5%) | $4.5b (19.0%) | -0.9% (-106.9%) | $-0.19 (-107.3%) |
| 2018 | $21.5b (-6.0%) | $3.2b (1683.5%) | $4.3b (-5.0%) | 15.0% (1785.1%) | $3.14 (1752.6%) |
| 2019 | $22.3b (3.8%) | $8.3b (157.4%) | $3.8b (-11.9%) | 37.3% (147.8%) | $8.93 (184.4%) |
| 2020 | $24.5b (9.9%) | $6.2b (-25.5%) | $5.1b (34.4%) | 25.2% (-32.3%) | $6.82 (-23.6%) |
| 2021 | $28.3b (15.4%) | $5.6b (-9.9%) | $6.0b (16.4%) | 19.7% (-21.9%) | $6.15 (-9.8%) |
| 2022 | $28.5b (0.8%) | $6.2b (11.9%) | $4.6b (-22.7%) | 21.9% (11.0%) | $6.93 (12.7%) |
| 2023 | $34.1b (19.6%) | $5.2b (-16.1%) | $-3.2b (-168.5%) | 15.4% (-29.8%) | $5.82 (-16.0%) |
| 2024 | $45.0b (32.0%) | $10.6b (102.1%) | $414.0m (113.1%) | 23.5% (53.1%) | $11.76 (102.1%) |
| 2025 | $65.2b (44.7%) | $20.6b (94.9%) | $6.0b (1340.6%) | 31.7% (34.7%) | $23.00 (95.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.