Discounted Cash Flow

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.

LOCO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $380.1m $18.3m $11.9m 4.8% $0.48
2017 $401.7m (5.7%) $8.6m (-53.0%) $17.4m (46.6%) 2.1% (-55.5%) $0.22 (-54.2%)
2018 $435.8m (8.5%) $-9.0m (-204.4%) $17.6m (1.2%) -2.1% (-196.2%) $-0.23 (-204.5%)
2019 $442.3m (1.5%) $24.9m (376.9%) $20.7m (17.3%) 5.6% (372.8%) $0.68 (395.7%)
2020 $426.1m (-3.7%) $24.5m (-1.7%) $33.9m (63.6%) 5.7% (2.0%) $0.70 (2.9%)
2021 $454.4m (6.6%) $29.1m (19.0%) $35.1m (3.5%) 6.4% (11.6%) $0.81 (15.7%)
2022 $470.0m (3.4%) $20.8m (-28.6%) $18.6m (-46.9%) 4.4% (-30.9%) $0.57 (-29.6%)
2023 $468.7m (-0.3%) $25.6m (22.8%) $19.4m (3.9%) 5.5% (23.2%) $0.75 (31.6%)
2024 $473.0m (0.9%) $25.7m (0.5%) $27.7m (43.1%) 5.4% (-0.4%) $0.86 (14.7%)
2025 $490.0m (3.6%) $26.5m (3.1%) $25.4m (-8.2%) 5.4% (-0.5%) $0.91 (5.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model