Discounted Cash Flow

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

LOPE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $873.3m $148.5m $40.0m 17.0% $3.22
2017 $974.1m (11.5%) $203.3m (36.9%) $191.3m (378.4%) 20.9% (22.7%) $4.31 (33.9%)
2018 $845.5m (-13.2%) $229.0m (12.6%) $104.6m (-45.3%) 27.1% (29.8%) $4.81 (11.6%)
2019 $778.6m (-7.9%) $259.2m (13.2%) $284.0m (171.6%) 33.3% (22.9%) $5.42 (12.7%)
2020 $844.1m (8.4%) $257.2m (-0.8%) $279.4m (-1.6%) 30.5% (-8.5%) $5.49 (1.3%)
2021 $896.6m (6.2%) $260.3m (1.2%) $284.2m (1.7%) 29.0% (-4.7%) $5.94 (8.2%)
2022 $911.3m (1.6%) $184.7m (-29.1%) $185.2m (-34.8%) 20.3% (-30.2%) $5.75 (-3.2%)
2023 $960.9m (5.4%) $205.0m (11.0%) $198.2m (7.0%) 21.3% (5.3%) $6.83 (18.8%)
2024 $1.0b (7.5%) $226.2m (10.4%) $252.3m (27.3%) 21.9% (2.7%) $7.77 (13.8%)
2025 $1.1b (7.1%) $216.2m (-4.4%) $238.6m (-5.4%) 19.5% (-10.8%) $7.76 (-0.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model