Discounted Cash Flow

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

LPLA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $4.0b $191.9m $147.2m 4.7% $2.15
2017 $4.3b (5.7%) $238.9m (24.5%) $331.9m (125.5%) 5.6% (17.7%) $2.65 (23.3%)
2018 $5.2b (21.2%) $439.5m (84.0%) $448.9m (35.3%) 8.5% (51.8%) $4.99 (88.3%)
2019 $5.6b (8.4%) $559.9m (27.4%) $467.5m (4.1%) 10.0% (17.5%) $6.78 (35.9%)
2020 $5.9b (4.4%) $472.6m (-15.6%) $634.4m (35.7%) 8.0% (-19.1%) $5.96 (-12.1%)
2021 $7.7b (31.5%) $459.9m (-2.7%) $237.1m (-62.6%) 6.0% (-26.0%) $5.75 (-3.5%)
2022 $8.6b (11.4%) $845.7m (83.9%) $1.6b (591.1%) 9.8% (65.1%) $10.60 (84.3%)
2023 $10.1b (16.9%) $1.1b (26.1%) $109.3m (-93.3%) 10.6% (7.9%) $13.88 (30.9%)
2024 $12.4b (23.2%) $1.1b (-0.7%) $-284.9m (-360.6%) 8.5% (-19.4%) $14.17 (2.1%)
2025 $17.0b (37.2%) $863.0m (-18.5%) $-981.8m (-244.6%) 5.1% (-40.6%) $10.97 (-22.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model