Discounted Cash Flow

Macy's, Inc.

M · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $27.1b $1.1b $-394.0m 4.0% $3.26
2017 $25.8b (-4.8%) $619.0m (-42.3%) $1.2b (405.8%) 2.4% (-39.3%) $2.01 (-38.3%)
2018 $24.9b (-3.3%) $1.6b (153.0%) $1.5b (20.9%) 6.3% (161.5%) $5.13 (155.2%)
2019 $25.0b (0.1%) $1.1b (-29.2%) $1.1b (-26.0%) 4.4% (-29.3%) $3.60 (-29.8%)
2020 $24.6b (-1.6%) $564.0m (-49.1%) $706.0m (-34.5%) 2.3% (-48.2%) $1.82 (-49.4%)
2021 $17.3b (-29.4%) $-3.9b (-799.3%) $311.0m (-55.9%) -22.7% (-1090.1%) $-12.68 (-796.7%)
2022 $24.5b (41.0%) $1.4b (136.3%) $2.4b (658.2%) 5.8% (125.7%) $4.66 (136.8%)
2023 $24.4b (-0.1%) $1.2b (-17.7%) $727.0m (-69.2%) 4.8% (-17.6%) $4.28 (-8.2%)
2024 $23.1b (-5.5%) $45.0m (-96.2%) $674.0m (-7.3%) 0.2% (-96.0%) $0.16 (-96.3%)
2025 $22.3b (-3.5%) $582.0m (1193.3%) $760.0m (12.8%) 2.6% (1239.7%) $2.10 (1212.5%)
2026 $21.8b (-2.4%) $642.0m (10.3%) $1.1b (39.1%) 2.9% (13.0%) $2.37 (12.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model