Discounted Cash Flow

Marriott International Inc. /Md/

MAR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $17.1b $780.0m $1.4b 4.6% $2.68
2017 $22.9b (34.1%) $1.4b (75.9%) $2.2b (58.8%) 6.0% (31.2%) $3.66 (36.6%)
2018 $20.8b (-9.3%) $1.9b (39.0%) $1.8b (-18.0%) 9.2% (53.3%) $5.45 (48.9%)
2019 $21.0b (1.0%) $1.3b (-33.2%) $1.0b (-42.7%) 6.1% (-33.9%) $3.83 (-29.7%)
2020 $10.6b (-49.6%) $-267.0m (-121.0%) $1.5b (45.7%) -2.5% (-141.6%) $-0.82 (-121.4%)
2021 $13.9b (31.1%) $1.1b (511.6%) $994.0m (-33.9%) 7.9% (414.0%) $3.36 (509.8%)
2022 $20.8b (49.9%) $2.4b (114.6%) $2.0b (104.3%) 11.4% (43.1%) $7.27 (116.4%)
2023 $23.7b (14.2%) $3.1b (30.7%) $2.7b (33.8%) 13.0% (14.5%) $10.23 (40.7%)
2024 $25.1b (5.8%) $2.4b (-23.0%) $2.0b (-26.5%) 9.5% (-27.2%) $8.36 (-18.3%)
2025 $26.2b (4.3%) $2.6b (9.5%) $2.6b (30.5%) 9.9% (5.0%) $9.53 (14.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model